Goldman Sachs – Why the Gold Price Could Surpass $4,000

The gold price has surged during the autumn of 2025 and is now approaching $4,000 per ounce. But Goldman Sachs sees two key factors that could push the price even higher.

Since late August, the gold price has risen by more than 14% and is now trading around $3,865 per ounce – an increase of nearly 50% so far this year. Behind this development lies growing interest from central banks, ETFs, and private investors.

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Two reasons why the gold price may climb even further

Goldman Sachs has long maintained a forecast that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. Now, the bank argues that there are strong reasons why the price could go even higher:

• Speculation has not driven the rally: Only a small part of this autumn’s price increase is due to speculative flows. This means the potential remains if broader investor demand picks up.
• Stronger inflows into ETFs: In September, holdings in gold ETFs rose by a full 109 tons – far above expectations. This suggests that private investors in the West are diversifying more into gold – not only physically but also digitally through ETFs.
  

Goldman Sachs also points out that gold ETFs remain small compared to the bond market. Therefore, even minor shifts in investment flows could trigger large price movements in the future.

Private interest and central bank purchases

The bank emphasizes that retail investor interest is now a key factor. If the trend continues, the gold price could reach $4,300 per ounce as early as next year. At the same time, central banks have continued to buy gold, providing a stable foundation for long-term price development.

The future of gold looks strong

Goldman Sachs sees gold as its most compelling commodity recommendation – supported by rising central bank demand, private investors’ diversification, and gold’s role as a safe haven in uncertain times.

The question is no longer whether gold will reach $4,000, but whether the price can continue even higher – a development highlighted by several major banks, including Goldman Sachs.