Gold price: Coronavirus, potential effects & situation in Sweden

The gold price has climbed from the beginning of February since the World is in fear of coronavirus. Many companies are struggling. Products are not being delivered from China. In some parts, manufacturing has even stopped and the workforce needs to stay at home. Fear and worry about the coronavirus have impacted stocks and manufacturers negatively but it has had positive impacts for gold. The last couple of weeks gold price has climbed and made all-time highs in EUR and SEK terms.

What is the current economic situation in the World?

There have been modest stock market gains in Europe, but there is still plenty of economic weakness for investors to be concerned about.

Germany’s economy is stagnating, having reported 0% growth for Q4 2019, and economic confidence is down. Japan is in a similar position, registering -1.6% growth in Q4 to put its economy into negative growth. France and Italy both have shrinking economies and could enter a recession if Q1 2020 continues to be poor, and Brazil – a major trader with China – revised its GDP forecast down from 2.2% to 2%, with a warning of further revisions the longer the Covid-19 virus continues to disrupt global supply chains and economic output.

The cracks are also beginning to show for major companies. Apple lost $40 billion in share value on 18^th February after a sales warning; issued to shareholders based on their lack of Chinese manufacturing at present. ^[3]  HSBC announced plans to cut 35,000 jobs globally to cover $600 million of loan losses, and Jaguar Land Rover also announced it has just two weeks of parts for production before it will have to pause operations in the UK. ^[4]

The longer the coronavirus disrupts global economies, the greater the likelihood of continued strong demand for safe havens like gold, which could push prices even higher.

What is the current situation in Sweden?

As per the public health agency of Sweden (folkhalsomyndigheten), a positive case was confirmed in Sweden in January 2020. Others have been tested and all of them have been negative so far. The public health agency further states the following: ‘it is important to remember that individual cases are not the same as the spread of infection in Sweden. This risk is currently assessed by the Public Health Authority as very low on the basis of experience from other countries. The health service has routines to handle cases like this in a good and safe way.
The Public Health Authority continuously monitors the development of the event and assesses the risk that is very low for the infection to spread in Sweden. In connection with import cases, individual cases may occur before the infection is stopped’ ^[5]

What could 2020 bring for the Gold price?

Stable long-term gold price growth is driven by fundamental economic, monetary and geostrategic processes that shape global markets: ^[1]

• ECONOMIC

The world economy is growing at an average annual rate of 3.4%. While most forecasts predict somewhat slower average economic growth this century, it does mean that global economic growth – the increase in total production of monetary goods (products, services, and commodities) – will continue to outstrip growth in total gold reserves, which has remained very high for over 100 years. stable at 1.5-1.7% per annum. In other words, for every pair of jeans, smartphones, breadcrumbs, etc., there is relatively less gold in the world, which makes this precious metal ever more valuable. ^[1]

• FINANCIAL POLICY

We live in a debt-based money system where the absolute majority of money circulating in the economy does not exist in the form of banknotes in the wallet, but in digital form in bank accounts. The most important thing that makes the constant rise in the price of gold inevitable is the fact that the amount of money is growing much faster than the amount of gold mined, which in turn guarantees the relative value of gold in terms of fiat money. This pattern is time tested and also a key reason why physical gold holders do not worry about short-term variations in the price of gold. In the long run, other investments can gain more, but there seems to be essentially no financial asset other than gold, which can stand the test of time in the long run. ^[1] 

Gold vs. Euro

The gold price in euros has set a new record daily since mid-February until the 24th. While on February 13, for the first time in history, the 1450 EUR / oz limit was exceeded, the days of the week later the price of gold fluctuates between 1460 and 1470 EUR / oz. At the time of writing this article, the gold price has reached 1498 EUR/oz level. The gold price has never been this high in Euro terms.

In just one and a half months in 2020, the gold price has increased by almost 10%. Gold prices have surpassed the forecast of the world’s leading investment bank Goldman & Sachs, but are moving ahead of the forecast of the world’s leading hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, which outlined a 30% rise in precious metal prices in 2020. ^[1]

Gold vs. Dollar

Gold price in USD has reached a seven-year high, as global supply chains are affected and concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus increased. This increased the customer demand for safe-haven assets like gold, driving the price of gold in USD terms it to a seven-year high. Gold prices reached 1634.1 USD per ounce.  ^{(Gold price of 1634.1 USD per ounce and exchange rate USDSEK=9,8 at the time of writing this article on 2020-02-21 at 12:00 (UTC+1))}

The price of gold touched January’s seven-year high in US Dollars, peaking at $1,611.10 per ounce with concerns over the coronavirus. The precious metal hit $1,611.25 in January, but the coronavirus impact upon stock markets and economic output has driven a sizeable surge in precious metal demand as investors pursue safe-haven assets.

Gold gained $42.55 an ounce in the last week, up 2.72%, while silver has risen by an even greater percentage – up 4.61% ($0.81).

While these gains are priced in Dollar terms (as is the primary pricing method for international metal markets), similar gains have been seen in Pound Sterling and Euros, indicating that the precious metal price rises are demand-driven, not currency based. ^[2]

Gold vs. Swedish Krona

Gold price in SEK has climbed more than 10% since the beginning of 2020. The increased concerns over the coronavirus and its effects on the global supply chain as well as the global market place seem to contribute to the risk in the price of gold. It is reported that manufacturers in Asia (and China in particular) are running out of material needed for the production of goods. Some factories have even reportedly shut down. This situation is affecting the supply chains and impacting global business. It underscores the significance of the world supply chain that has many links to China.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an investment analysis or recommendation to sell or buy commodities. Tavex is not responsible for any decisions made based on this information. Investing is associated with opportunities and risks, and the market value of commodities can both increase and decrease. Past or future yields on the commodities and financial ratios shown above do not represent a promise or an indication of future earnings.

^[1] Tavid AS (comments by Adrian Bachmann, chief analyst at Tavid) https://tavid.ee/uudised-kulla-hind-ajaloo-korgeimal-tasemel-kulla-hinna-paratamatu-kasvu-pohjustest/

^[2] Bullionbypost  https://us7.campaign-archive.com/?u=a3d26a918a9435a094a843a29&id=43972f8602&e=d44558b5d2

^[3]  GZ https://qz.com/670994/apple-just-destroyed-more-than-40-billion-in-stock-market-value-in-under-an-hour/

^[4] Citywire   https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/wednesday-papers-hsbc-to-shed-35000-jobs-in-radical-downsizing/a1325313

^[5] Folkhalsomyndigheten  https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/smittsamma-sjukdomar/coronavirus/fragor-och-svar-om-nytt-coronavirus/?exp=67533