The silver price has been volatile for the past year. In March 2020, the Silver price dropped to the 11-year lowest level of 11,7 USD / oz – the last time Silver was this low was in June 2009. After the 11-year lowest level, the Silver price started to climb again, and the growth has been exponential! After March 2020 lowest point Silver price climbed 5-months in a row and reached almost 30 USD / oz, which was the highest price in 7 years. In five months, the Silver price gained more than 150% in value.
In this article, we analyze the Silver price and what can happen with it in the future.
Indicators used for analyzing XAG/USD:
- Moving averages – 250MA / 50MA / 21MA.
- RSI – Relative Strenght Index.
- Trendlines / Support / Resistance
(Picture 1. Silver graph, 1-week timeframe)
Like mentioned before the Silver price skyrocketed since the 2020 March Covid-19 scare. The price almost touched 30 USD / oz but corrected itself since a major historical resistance area between 27.6-28.7 USD. After the 7-year high, the market corrected itself and moved sideways for a while, when the market bulls tried to pressure the Silver price to break out from the historical resistance area. This did not happen because market bears did not allow it, and the price corrected itself again, and its currently trading at 24.855 USD/oz. We can likely see bulls’ pressure again to break out from the mentioned historical resistance level in the upcoming weeks. If it happens, this time, we might see the Silver price reach 35 USD/oz rather sooner than later.
- The moving averages are in correlation with each other, which means 21MA (orange line) is trading above 50MA (blue line), and 50MA is trading above 250MA (green line).
- The price is trading above the 50MA line, which is a strong price indicator. Ideally, we would like to see the price trading above 21MA as well.
When looking In Picture 1. we see that there is also price action formulating with a long wick candlestick. This indicates market bulls pressure.
(Picture 2. Silver graph, 1-week timeframe, RSI divergence)
- When using the RSI indicator, we are looking for divergences between price-graph and indicator-graph.
- In picture 2. we can see clearly that the RSI indicator has made lower lows, and in price graph there are higher lows. This is a divergence, and this particular divergence speaks in favor of bulls.
Trendlines, Support, Resistance
(Picture 3.. Silver graph, 1-week timeframe, trends, support/resistance)
- There is a long-term uptrend and a short-term downtrend.
- There is a tapering triangle formation, and market prices usually respect those lines until the breakout. The breakout can go either way, but it usually happens at the end of the tapering triangle.
- When analyzing the graph, there is a high potential for a breakout (either way) in June.
When the Silver price breaks above, it is expected the price to go as high as 35 USD/oz. On the other hand, when the price breaks below, it could drop as far as 19.5 USD/oz.
1 oz Österrikisk Silver Philharmoniker
March technical analysis for Gold/US-dollar